New Research Quantifies Meteorological Drought Dynamics, A case study in Punjab Province, Pakistan

A new research article has been published in Applied Water Science (IF 5.7), examining long-term climate variability and meteorological drought characteristics across Punjab Province, Pakistan, for the period 1991–2022. The study was conducted by Prof. Songtao Ai’s research team at Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping, Wuhan University, led by his Ph.D student Shoukat Ali Shah, with additional contributions from Tahira Khurshid, a doctoral student at Hohai University.

The research applies two widely used drought indicators the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) across multiple temporal scales (3, 6, 9, and 12 months) to capture both seasonal drought events and longer-term drought persistence. Using long-term precipitation and temperature records from the NASA POWER dataset, the study identifies major drought periods in Punjab, including extreme drought years in 1997 and 2002, severe drought in 1991, 2000, 2001, and 2005, and milder drought conditions in 1993, 1999, and 2004.

Figure: SPI and RDI index-based spatial distribution of drought, showing extreme drought to extreme wet visualization

The district-level results reveal clear regional contrasts. Southern and central Punjab including Bahawal Nagar, Bahawal Pur, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Rahim Yar Khan, and Vehari consistently show stronger drought conditions, linked to higher temperatures, limited rainfall, and elevated evaporative demand. In contrast, northern districts generally exhibit relatively wetter conditions, reflecting Punjab’s strong climatic gradient from north to south.

In particular, the study provides district-scale scientific evidence to support drought monitoring, early warning, and water–agriculture planning in Pakistan’s most important agricultural province, where climate-driven drought remains a persistent and recurring risk.

The article can be downloaded from the following link: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-026-02748-7.

Written by:

Shoukat Ali Shah